There’s no point sugar-coating it: the next 18 months are going to be absolutely crucial for the UK economy. The background could barely be tougher: engrained low productivity, an ageing population, creaking public services, a bloated civil service that’s increased by 100,000 since Brexit, unrest in Ukraine impacting energy price and a US President who is a little bit erratic.

When we talk about ‘tough decisions’ we’re not talking about political ideology – we’re talking about people's jobs, their livelihoods, their welfare. Last week, I wrote about tariffs – little did I know then that by this week, the US President would slap a 25 per cent tariff on imported vehicles. We cannot sit back and be buffeted by these storms of globalisation. We have to, on the one hand, try and get a trade deal with the US as quickly as possible but without allowing a flood of low grade US meat into the country, and without allowing the ‘tech bros’ a free rein to exploit the UK without paying their fair share of tax, whilst at the same time reducing the disastrous bureaucracy that has developed in UK-EU trade (I thought Brexit was meant to reduce bureaucracy, not increase it?)

But even then, that does not fix government spending. As well as some serious realignment of the UK civil service, we have also focussed heavily on the ballooning welfare budget. Our 'Pathways to Work' package includes an additional £1-billion a year for work, health, and skills support. This funding will build on existing provision to ensure that everyone in receipt of welfare feels they have the confidence to try to get back into work if they are able to. The package also includes rebalancing payments for universal credit to address perverse incentives, improve basic adequacy and crucially – help those with the most severe conditions. We’re increasing the standard allowance above inflation for the first time ever, with it equating to a £775 cash increase by 2029/30.

Meanwhile, the 'Right to Try' programme supports people who rely on the benefit system to try and get back into work without having to worry about their benefits being at risk. Previously, the Conservative system created a culture of fear that if someone reliant on the welfare system attempted to get back into work, and was unsuccessful, then their welfare payments could be at risk due to automatic reassessment. Under this Labour Government, this will no longer be the case. We will also be scrapping the 'Work Capability Assessment' entirely. It unhelpfully labelled applicants as either “can” or "can’t” work, ignoring the reality of fluctuating health conditions and people’s desire to get back to work.

But with over 1,000 new PIP cases a day, we are tightening the application criteria which will mean some who would have been eligible previously will not be eligible under the new rules. As I say, I’m not sugar-coating this: the next 18 months for the UK economy will be crucial.